Shipowners and analysts, however, remain very cautious and prudent about a possible return of maritime traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
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Just hours before the start of the first phase of the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, Houthi militants from Yemen provided an update on their attack strategy in the Red Sea.
More specifically, they stated that, as long as the ceasefire remains in effect, international merchant vessels will be able to safely transit between the Indian Ocean and the Suez Canal, except for those owned by Israel or flying the Israeli flag, which will remain a target. The Houthis further clarified that any additional attacks on Yemen by British and American military forces could result in the targeting of merchant vessels from those countries as well.
In the past year and a half, since November 2023, in support of the Palestinians and Hamas, the Houthis have launched a campaign against merchant vessels transiting the Red Sea, targeting over 100 ships and causing a massive diversion of maritime traffic between Asia and Europe, with ships opting to circumnavigate Africa. The militants have repeatedly stated that their campaign will continue until Israeli forces leave Gaza.
Major shipowners, particularly container transport companies, remain cautious about returning to navigation in the Red Sea. ‘Representatives of the Houthis have signaled a plan to suspend attacks on ships, but have not announced a full cessation. Therefore, a long-term confirmed ceasefire is necessary first,’ said maritime analysts from the investment bank Jefferies, as reported by Splash247.
‘At this stage, no immediate changes to routes are expected, as line operators will likely thoroughly assess security and risk issues. It is expected that other segments of maritime transport may take the initiative to address these issues before significant actions occur in the liner market,’ suggests the analysis published by the broker Braemar, according to which tramp traffic will be the first to return to those seas. ‘War risk insurance premiums for ships operating in the Red Sea have skyrocketed due to the increased risks. It will take time for insurers to reassess and lower these premiums, even after the ceasefire.’ The reopening of the Red Sea ‘will likely be gradual and will unfold over months rather than weeks,’ Braemar added.
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