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Container freight rates may have peaked. This is the indication emerging from the latest analysis by Linerlytica, according to which demand is losing momentum ahead of the traditional winter low season. Contributing to the shift in balance is the gradual return of vessels to the Suez route, which reduces sailing times and frees up capacity that had previously been absorbed by the longer transits around the Cape of Good Hope.

The analytics firm highlights that total capacity deployed on the Far East–Mediterranean route has fallen by 470,000 TEU since July, as more than half of the Mediterranean services have already returned to transiting via Suez, with others set to follow shortly.

“Unless the Houthis change their minds, normalization will be complete within a couple of months,” states the CEO of Vespucci Maritime, according to whom the return to Suez is effectively freeing up vessels that can now be deployed on other routes.

Forty of the vessels released so far have already been redeployed on the market, largely absorbed by Transpacific and Latin American routes. By contrast, the Far East–North Europe route has not recorded any significant reduction in deployed capacity due to port congestion in Northern Europe and Asia, which continues to absorb surplus capacity.

In the past week, delays worsened in East Asia after Typhoon Champi disrupted maritime traffic in the region, adding up to three days to the schedules of affected vessels. Major ports in Southeast Asia and South Asia also continue to experience persistent congestion, partly due to vessel bunching. Ships returning to the Suez route are overlapping with those continuing along the Cape of Good Hope route. According to experts, this overlap is generating arrival peaks, placing severe pressure on port operations.

Despite these issues, global port congestion remains under 10%, down from the recent peak of 13%. Linerlytica predicts a further reduction by the end of the year as the Pacific typhoon season comes to a close. If this trend holds, it will eliminate part of the constraints that have helped support freight rates up to now.

While the return to Suez and port congestion are conditioning short-term market balance, fleet growth is weighing heavily on the medium term. According to Alphaliner, the global container ship orderbook recently crossed 15 million TEU and could approach 16 million TEU by the end of the year.

This growth could be bolstered by around forty contracts for megamax newbuildings expected to be finalized or officially confirmed. These include orders anticipated for A.P. Moller-Maersk and Yang Ming Marine Transport Corp., alongside contracts for CMA CGM and MSC Mediterranean Shipping Company that are reportedly already signed.

Lars Jensen points out that in September and October, the top ten ocean carriers added 1.3 million TEU to their orderbooks—a nominal capacity comparable to that of the world’s eighth-largest liner company. The orderbook now equals roughly 46–47% of the existing fleet, with deliveries scheduled through 2030.

The new deliveries will include some 24,000 TEU units and, notably, vessels between 10,000 and 16,000 TEU. The latter could also reshape the balance on Transpacific routes to the US West Coast, where the average vessel size deployed is currently under 10,000 TEU. Larger ships could increase capacity per departure, though the impact on sailing frequencies will depend on how carriers reorganize their services. Consequently, if additional supply is not matched by adequate demand growth, pressure on freight rates could intensify.

Compounding this outlook is tariff uncertainty. The United States has modified the list of Canadian products subject to the additional 50% tariff: certain categories have been removed, while others have been added. Exempted products include specific packaging materials, seaweed for human consumption, and certain types of industrial machinery. Newly impacted products include cocoa powder, canoes under 7.5 meters in length, shampoos and soaps, archery equipment, carpets, paints, and other types of packaging.

The changes are scheduled to take effect on October 30, 2026, though actual implementation depends on specific customs classifications: not all goods under the listed categories are necessarily treated the same way. For US importers, the updated list introduces another element of uncertainty in a market already shaped by slowing demand, the return of ships to Suez, and prospects of expanding global capacity.

SOURCE: PORT NEWS 10/29/2026